Environment and Economy

I had come up with the environmental economic macroassociation on about October 28, 2006, but more pressing matters kept me from writing until now. I see economist.com has an October 30 spread on the topic.

They project about a 2/5 increase in greenhouse gas emissions by 2025. I wonder, where will these gasses come from? Oil cannot be sustained to those measures. Coal cannot replace oil to that extent, and nuclear power relies heavily on oil power.

If we do not do something about oil yesterday [in 1995] we will face the decline of industrialized civilization. So it may be an open secret that we're heading for a major economic crisis in about 2007-2008-2009, to be preceeded and overlapped by an eventually global military upswing, if it is achievable politically.

This will also be considerable because the value of fiscal currency will likely become far more attached to commodity than its floating value. Regional value of commodities may become exaggeratedly more prevalent than the normal value of a currency. I would expect a rapid shift from liquid assets to commodity and perhaps real estate during this time, especially during war, multiplied by worldwide oil shortage.

What is my fiscal recommendation for such a situation. Leave your 401(k) and put it into something more solid. The stock market is going to be a massive sinkhole in the event of peak oil or a fiscal crisis, or any serious crisis, for which many are we headed. I would avoid the finance sector, as it is fluff and based on nothing. Precious metals and energy shares seem most viable for the old-world economy.

But a new world market will be born, or "no flesh will survive". Energy technology will advance dramatically and allow clean free energy to be produced anywhere for a low cost per kilowatt capacity. This will allow people to live in very low cost of living environments and likely deflate the economies of the most industrialized areas by ~75%. The resource-heavy reasons people went to war will become obsolete, and new society will be formed around the new mankind-sustaining technology. This should square up in the years of the crisis and after.

Brazil will not be making 700 billion tons of greenhouse gasses by 2025. They will be making about 32 billion tons, primarily from exhalation. If you extrapolate growth figures from 2000-2005 without considering advanced technology or resource shortage then you'll get exactly what you chart for, which will not happen.

I am also surprised that the economist is so politically minded, yet they describe long term economic statements without regard to volitility, peak oil, and the effects of environmentally mandated or publicly mandated industrial or political course-change.