5 Year American Economic Forecast

Is the environment sustainable? I am more concerned that natural resources or other means will run out before the economy 'runs out'. Sustainable is on a 5 year+ or longer term. Is our American economy sustainable on a 5 year term?

*Oil*, *debt*, and *instability* are the three main courses of this fiscal dinner. We're scheduled to hit peak oil still somewhere in 2008, it seems. Or the moment Iran is invaded, or in the event of a serious event somewhere in the oil-world.

Conversely, alternative fuels' breaking of the numerous 'natural' monopolies of the Western superstructure will cost what is estimated to be 'hundreds of trillions' of dollars in expenses and modernizations which are the solitary alternative to oil. We can begin switching to alternative fuels now and stretch out the estimates over the next ~3 years, or we can wait until peak oil and some level of q-100 to q-1000[+] years' crisis that will blank our entire economy and be on the level of the collapse of Rome.

Oil is a worldwide problem. We can handle that as a world. It is far more important than choosing a form of capitalism, which is not a blank check, and this change will dramatically affect the structure of the economy in the next 5 years.

Debt is a serious problem, and along with debt I will group social class fiscal differentiation. Alan Greenspan has placed a figure of 70% at a major fiscal crisis in the next 3 years. Coming into 2.5 years. The Federal Reserve has said a 60% risk of a major American currency crisis in the next 3-5 years. They make the currency.

Social differentiation has also become increasingly profound, and its effects on the *large* American economy have been ravaging. I liken it to termites. This has also been aided at the top by massive outsourcing and shifting industries to foreign countries. This benefits probably 100 people at the top very much, in that they get to rake $ off of Americans and 1st worlders while paying almost none to 3rd worlders.

This makes the elite business owners 1st class citizens, the average American a 2nd class citizen being stolen from [literally] and undersupplied, and the 3rd worlders are still on the bottom. How long can this last? It is and will continue to damage the whole American economy, and the world economy is also being affected.

This contributes greatly to instability, and reduces American ability to produce a high quality of life. When quality of life *reduces* especially, voters become unhappy, and commerce has a tendency to become slightly downcast or saccharine.

...saccharine. That is a good word to describe this administration and recent economic forte.

It is also a profound measure of the success and quality of an empire/country. The breaking of our rights is also a very negative element that is not without fiscal consequences, although political and social and structural consequences are far greater.

So will America last 5 years, economically? The Fed gives that a 40% chance. Alen Greenspan gives it 3 years and 30%. Greenspan being the less interested party, I would use his figure. I would put the official tally at substantially less than 50% chance of moving through the next 5 years in better than 'fair' economic shape.

My personal analysis: we'll get housed by oil in time for the 2008 elections, engineered or no. That can be investigated later. There will be some truth to the problem of oil arriving at that time. But it may also play handily into someone's hands. *Do not* trust them. This will not be a time for trusting men with large plans unless they accord with God's plan very closely.

We may face this debt crisis when American credit runs out. I am not sure when that will be, but China and the world that disapproves of our military moves could choose to simply 'not finance' the war in Iran. In which case American credit would plummet, and American interest rates would shoot up, and we'd dry out. Considering that our plan is to roll over our bonds, we might come to an economic grinding halt if we are unable to meet our debt, and need to take teen% bonds. I don't think a possibly decade-terminal oil crisis is the time for a bond market. That power thing needs to be addressed first. More on that and the total tally soon.

3-5 years. Destabilization, too. Will we find ourselves in another Constitutional crisis when we impeach George W Bush? Will he commit our troops in Iran before we can get him out? Will the 2006 midterms bring this business on in time for 2007? What will China do in this situation? What would happen if the American people recaptured the American media, which is likely post midterms, which is likely in the year before the 2008 elections? We've got this North American Union thing that is seriously unpleasant. We're facing serious threats to our 1st 4th and 8th amendments, we're still at war with 'no nation', oh, and there's the 9/11 scandal. It's now a scandal, and not a conspiracy. When the scandal becomes trials that may be the official boiling point of political capital. Also that will be the latest possible point at which George W Bush will be impeached and tried, along with however many of the others who aided him. This will occur before the end of his term.

Those are the facts! Please pray to God for us.