This post will discuss two main topics: currency traded for bonds and oil, and international cash reserves.
1. Sources say that this year for the first time substantially more bonds globally were traded in Euros than dollars. Dollars counted less than 40% of all transactions. A major source of these bonds are oil receipts, as well as gross industrial production and foreign trades.
2. China has overtaken Japan as the largest holder of capital. They have about $1 trillion, 700 billion of which is in dollars. They have decided to diversify their holdings away from the dollar.
China was both crediting America's trade deficit and domestic budget deficit and collecting American dollars. This propped up dollar-value internationally, while American fiscal heads ran up very large debts around rolling deficits. We became involved in longstanding and expensive wars and domestic irresponsibility and offshored our industrial base. We also sold our roads.
If China chooses to offload these dollars even over a few years, the American dollar will be housed. America will no longer have the fiscal ability to support itself, nor likely the credit rating to acquire financial support.
Predicting possible scenarios is not a worthwhile endeavor in this kind of fical market. New technology could potentially erase debt and deficits, and is a finer choice than playing small game.
It may be so that America has been planning this fiscal scenario since the PNAC signng. If the American aristocracy planned to run up large deficits before cornering the oil/energy market and then shut down oil flow worldwide except where it chooses, they could attempt to 'get away with' poor fiscal performance followed by very agressive military and economic warfare. God would not allow this to succeed.
This plan would be 'holed' by water-splitting technology or other major scientific advances which have been discovered, patented, and prototyped extensively.
Blessed are the poor, in spirit, for theirs is the kingdom of heaven. -Beatitudes
Wednesday, January 24, 2007
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