Economic Indicators For 3Q06

All Business

To be frank, the American dollar traded at about 1:1.45 [CAN] in ~2002. now it trades at ~1:1.07. Canada is the control group of this experiment. This is fairly accurate and would be difficult to fake. The USD has deflated in value about 35% since ~2002.

American worker wages have risen an average of 0.3% per year for 25 years. This was stated on NPR one fine day. While cost of living has been rising apace of inflation.

the seperation between rich and poor is greater than at any time since the 1920's. the next greatest seperation will be the 1890's before the anti-trust laws kicked in. public debt is as high as the 1920's.

unemployment is not ~5%. it is closer to 9-10%, or more, because unemployment does not count those who have given up job searching because the market has no free jobs. it also does not count underemployment, where 40 hours a week are not available, or 40 hours a week do not produce 1 quality of living. to get a meaningful job it costs about $100,000 in college monies. most Americans don't have this money.

inflation is also closer to ~8%. when comparing prices between now and last year 'economists' take every advantage, between name brand/cheap brand goods, walmart to premium store style comparison, and factoring in reduction of cost by obsoletion. a flatscreen TV reducing in price by 30% in one year due to new technology replacing it is not deflation, but it wrongfully counts against inflation.

and we're running a ~500 billion deficit? with taxes and social services reducing every year. GOV spent 24% less on healthcare this year, if i am not mistaken. that means ~24% fewer healthcare jobs and services.

Peak oil is the largest and most important economic figure facing the US and world today. oil prices have risen 300% in the past few years and take up a greater portion of cost of living than in the past 2-3 decades. we are set to hit peak oil in about 2007, which will cause oil prices to rise 300% on top of this rise.

what is the FED's plan for peak oil? let it ride? they haven't even addressed the issue publicly yet and it is on our doorstep.

America owns more than one vehicle per person. We have more than 300 million vehicles, over 95% of them running on petroleum. Fortunately about 15 million of them are E85, which could quickly be tuned to run on neat ethanol, and another 15 million of them are diesel, which could be quickly modified to run on neat biodiesel. This could potentially reduce our oil demands by perhaps one MBD. And other voluntary conservation measures could likely remove another MBD.

That 2MBD represents a normal growth figure of approximately 6-8 months on the oil scale, and it will shatter confidence and futures. The remainder will be cost-prohibitive reduction and a small amount of supply-prohibitive reduction, both of which are business-toxins. Considering the relatively inelastic properties of oil for transportation and the lack of non-oil alternatives, except for coal and electric rail, which cannot support the backbones of commerce, peak oil will damage American economic performance as badly as the Great Depression, by seperating and placing fiscal resistance between necessary economic conductors.

Will this damage America's ability to lead world economics? Yes. The Greenback may no longer be the prime mover in world currency. Arab nations and net oil producers will set the tone because they will not hinder their own economics with oil prices. They will pass the price on to us, the net consumers. Net consumers will be at a fiscal disadvantage of moderate to high degree depending on importers' willingness to diversify and educational and some infrastructural factors. What form of currency will lead economics? It could be the Yuan, the Dollar, the Euro, or possibly the Saudi. Depending on the deals between Saudi Arabia and America. Depending on Chinese intuition. Depending on European preparedness. Boring.

What can the nation do, and you, by proxy, to be ready for peak oil and advance in a tight job market with high inflation, international currency devaluation, and sagging public service?

Reduce your costs and shift around oil. Examine Homestead Magazine for tips on how to live more cheaply. Become energy efficient. Replace old bulbs with efficient ones and turn them off when you're not using them. Turn off the TV and computer when you're not around them. Convert your oil-burning car to ethanol or biodiesel. If building or buying a new home, make it earth-sheltered, or at least EnergyStar efficient. Invest in alternative energy projects, both in the stock market and in your profile of goods.

"Do not make unneccesary trips."

If you are a worker, perform research a service or science field you can use without oil. If you have mechanical ability, study engines and alternative fuels, know how to service and convert your vehicle. Get top mileage. Research how to make biodiesel fuel or where to buy it. Learn medical information and stay current with scholarly journals. Learn how to sew. Try making at least one article of clothing for yourself, or a friend. Compost. Recycle. Freecycle. Plant a garden, and don't use pesticides or excessive fertilizer. Build a greenhouse if you want controlled environments. Get to know your neighbors, friends, and families. They are your closest allies.

If you are a small business, begin to advertise and supply services linked to energy efficiency, self training and skill gathering. Offer online services preferential to a commute. *Reduce the amount of advertising in your store.* Research the companies you do business with. Buy local products. If you are a franchise, disenfranchise. You can do it better and have more money to use.

If you are a large business, consider modifying your corporate offices and businesses to have a top greenhouse or wind farm. Advertise less and use less packaging, but try shifting the layout of the service or product tangent to the market. Use fewer artificial colors and flavors and fewer preservatives. Use less sugars, salts, and fats in the diet. Trade this money for higher quality products or paying your workers more. These will both produce better goods and services. If you run autofleets, convert them to run using biodiesel or ethanol fuels. Petition the government and automakers to support this shift internationally. ...buy back some of your stock. Avoid long term bonds and loans. Do not test products on animals, ever.

Write, talk, and email to your government. The links are provided on the side of this page. Now you have no excuse. You can email your senator about anything in 5 minutes.

If you are a government, legalize industrial hemp and use it to make cheaper paper than the current woodpulp setup. This is less resource and time intensive and you'll make billions in 2 years. Enforce anti-trust laws. Enforce EPA regulations. Sign the Kyoto treaty and meet it by shifting to biodiesel/ethanol fuel and changing power plant operation from coal and nuclear to enzyme fuel cells and concentrating solar power. The southern half of the US shouldn't have any nuclear or coal plants at all. Ever. For any reason. De-privatize massive public service projects such as water and power. That is DPW material. Not for profit. Tax if necessary to conserve. Enact conservation budgets, replace incandescent stoplights with LED stoplights. Investigate piezoelectric uses.

Translate foreign aid into well-digging programs to provide the world with clean drinking water. We should also provide the means for ~2-3 billion solar cookers to be used in the 3rd world to cook food and sanitize water more easily.

Most of these measures will be taken in the next 20 years by necessity or forethought. Decide.