This is a crossover between super science and receipt for labor because of the geoscientific and electromagnetic principles discussed.
>100% efficiency items are good. The facts here will help you recognize this. "The cost of capital run ~3-7%/year." -Johnson. The cost of capital is circa meaningless in this case, and human energy potential is fueled primarily by food which grows from the ground for a base price.
The magnetic field contains ~7EJ (7x10^18 Joules) of energy. Meanwhile total current energy production runs ~1.25EJ/yr.
Also, recognize that the earth's magnetic field is produced partially as a result of ions from the sun hitting the atmosphere and the earth's metal core. These factors are replenishing at an unspecified rate, presumed to be astronomically substantial. The earth is a recharging battery. It also swims in energy and cosmic rays and fields transmit energy from the whole galaxy to all voids. 7EJ is probably the capacity or realm capacity of the battery rather than the amount we could use before depleting it.
It is also probable that a substantial portion of energy used on earth could be derived from biodiesel and ethanol and also from water splitting. Water splitting actually could replace a considerable amount of accounted electrical generation if necessary. A massive water splitting power plant, or biofuel cells, could easily replace Moray field therapy.
Thursday, June 29, 2006
Economic Expansion
Consider some of the points raised in this article. Also consider that the American frontier is not a definable place. It is not California, it is not rural regions. It is in individuals and minds. But know that there is always a fronteir and their will always be edge.
Saturday, June 24, 2006
Advanced Economic Consequences of ~Free Energy
Let us imagine that we hve energy that is circa free. It requires some technical control and infrastructure to run, maintain, and supply the world, but beyond that the energy is basically costless. The economic results of such a condition, which is attainable, would be magnificent.
Let's take some spot examples. How much would it cost for a pound of flat rice? Normally this would cost like a buck. That accounts for fertilizer, irrigation, labor, processing, shipping, and tax.
The cost of fertilizer would be reduced because the chemical process of refining would have no energy constraints. Somewhat inefficient processes that had higher volume yields would be suitable. Efficient processes that were most desirable would be lower in cost, and expanding that process would be easier. The cost and scarcity of labor for workers to be there [time], paid[$], and to create and maintain the machines [infrastructure] would also be lesser. Shipping the fertilizer would be cheaper, as it is sure heavy. Spreading it would be done on cheaper machines running on free energy by less costly work markets.
Irrigation would be cheaper to dig because the machines to do it would run on free energy, the and the cost of digging, refining, and shaping the metal of the machines would be lesser. The cost to pump or even refine the water will be minimal once the motor has been installed.
The labor involved in producing the rice, and in producing most things, will not decrease. The work world will resemble the real world on a high level. We could afford and expedite the introduction of robotics to the workforce, but most things will still need technical handling or manually operating a machine to make do. Workers also would require less salary because their expenses and world expense would decrease. They would not need the estimated $7500 or more annually to run their car, heat their home, run their appliances, and the cost of these appliances, cars, and homes would decrease as well because the industry would not have to pay for energy, materials handlers would nto have to pay for energy, and the most constructive methods could be used without substantial regard to energy producing the greatest non-energy efficiency methods of production for all things. Taxes would be lowered by the same degree. The cost in the market might deflate by as much as half, or more, once all the air was squeezed out through the supply chain. Cost of living would probably decrease by a greater margin than half.
Labor supply would be affected as well. Many more jobs would be replaced by machines, but social support and material support would increase tenfold, demand would certainly not decrease, and would probably increase from numerous people being lifted out of poverty by charity and new social and infrastructure arrangements. Even with enhanced robotics and decreased business expenses, many many new jobs could open and the cost of starting a business would plummet.
This is the description of business becoming dramatically more efficient. To the Old Guard: That is *good* for the marketplace and for society. Just beating budget is not. A swollen beauracracy does not serve people, it complicates their lives. "I ran out of papers to file" is not a bad thing. It means you can go hiking, or work on something else.
In the same way, processing the rice would be done by a free running cheaper machine and shipping it would occur on a free energy cheaper boat or truck, and cooking it would require a stove and no money to run it.
Tax would likely pay for the power plants made to build the energy, and for materials and machines needed to maintain society. What would we need a military for? To defend ourselves from marauders, but what would marauders want? Our spiols would be as plentiful as the grass in the fields, as the waters in the ocean. They would not use up the cost of time to walk over here and the social offense of taking something from someone else when it is good as free worldwide. It would be more work to steal than to work. War would be sport, or foolishness. We'd beat our swords into plowshares.
Bring me the hammer.
"Old is for when you don't feel super special excellent. Does fun get old? Does awesome get old? Then you're old."
Let's take some spot examples. How much would it cost for a pound of flat rice? Normally this would cost like a buck. That accounts for fertilizer, irrigation, labor, processing, shipping, and tax.
The cost of fertilizer would be reduced because the chemical process of refining would have no energy constraints. Somewhat inefficient processes that had higher volume yields would be suitable. Efficient processes that were most desirable would be lower in cost, and expanding that process would be easier. The cost and scarcity of labor for workers to be there [time], paid[$], and to create and maintain the machines [infrastructure] would also be lesser. Shipping the fertilizer would be cheaper, as it is sure heavy. Spreading it would be done on cheaper machines running on free energy by less costly work markets.
Irrigation would be cheaper to dig because the machines to do it would run on free energy, the and the cost of digging, refining, and shaping the metal of the machines would be lesser. The cost to pump or even refine the water will be minimal once the motor has been installed.
The labor involved in producing the rice, and in producing most things, will not decrease. The work world will resemble the real world on a high level. We could afford and expedite the introduction of robotics to the workforce, but most things will still need technical handling or manually operating a machine to make do. Workers also would require less salary because their expenses and world expense would decrease. They would not need the estimated $7500 or more annually to run their car, heat their home, run their appliances, and the cost of these appliances, cars, and homes would decrease as well because the industry would not have to pay for energy, materials handlers would nto have to pay for energy, and the most constructive methods could be used without substantial regard to energy producing the greatest non-energy efficiency methods of production for all things. Taxes would be lowered by the same degree. The cost in the market might deflate by as much as half, or more, once all the air was squeezed out through the supply chain. Cost of living would probably decrease by a greater margin than half.
Labor supply would be affected as well. Many more jobs would be replaced by machines, but social support and material support would increase tenfold, demand would certainly not decrease, and would probably increase from numerous people being lifted out of poverty by charity and new social and infrastructure arrangements. Even with enhanced robotics and decreased business expenses, many many new jobs could open and the cost of starting a business would plummet.
This is the description of business becoming dramatically more efficient. To the Old Guard: That is *good* for the marketplace and for society. Just beating budget is not. A swollen beauracracy does not serve people, it complicates their lives. "I ran out of papers to file" is not a bad thing. It means you can go hiking, or work on something else.
In the same way, processing the rice would be done by a free running cheaper machine and shipping it would occur on a free energy cheaper boat or truck, and cooking it would require a stove and no money to run it.
Tax would likely pay for the power plants made to build the energy, and for materials and machines needed to maintain society. What would we need a military for? To defend ourselves from marauders, but what would marauders want? Our spiols would be as plentiful as the grass in the fields, as the waters in the ocean. They would not use up the cost of time to walk over here and the social offense of taking something from someone else when it is good as free worldwide. It would be more work to steal than to work. War would be sport, or foolishness. We'd beat our swords into plowshares.
Bring me the hammer.
"Old is for when you don't feel super special excellent. Does fun get old? Does awesome get old? Then you're old."
Friday, June 23, 2006
Economic Hit Men
Economic Hit Manning is fiscally irresponsible, as well as unethical. Subverting foreign governments and people to gain their resources is less efficient than changing your own industries to feature maxmimum performance. A vehicle could potentially get 171mpg. European diesel vehicles routinely get ~45 or more mpg, and have stellar performance. they run on 15ppm of sulfur. American diesel contains 500ppm of sulfur, and is too filthy to be used massively for this reason.
Is it more cost-effective to run the world's oil production based on a 15[20]mpg car and hold back technical production to sell more oil, or to increase efficiency of industries and motorworks to 171mpg and produce more work with the same oil?
This depends on whether you rely on oil or work to make your bread, and from a total market standpoint, it is more efficient to have the better motor and do more with less. This could be a symptom of grand-scale protectionism, which could easily be replaced by a simple update of factories and attitudes. War is failure. Inefficiency, so much more, is a root of failure. Being knowledgeably led astray is failure.
What is the risk of free energy? Standalone energy devices could easily replace a majority of the world's work. The people who sell energy and oil would be removed from economic fortitude, but what kind of place would they find if they abandoned oil? Saudi Arabia and the Middle East could be massively westernized or northernized or southernized or centralized if they chose to adopt free energy instead of oil. They could build factories building anything they want for about no dollars, ad be flush with things and capacity to do work. The equally divided better lot is greater than the entire present lot on a person to person basis. It would be easy to support very high qualities of living for everyone on earth and billions more with such technology and social structure in place. By 'everyone' I mean all 6.2 billion humans living here.
Is it more cost-effective to run the world's oil production based on a 15[20]mpg car and hold back technical production to sell more oil, or to increase efficiency of industries and motorworks to 171mpg and produce more work with the same oil?
This depends on whether you rely on oil or work to make your bread, and from a total market standpoint, it is more efficient to have the better motor and do more with less. This could be a symptom of grand-scale protectionism, which could easily be replaced by a simple update of factories and attitudes. War is failure. Inefficiency, so much more, is a root of failure. Being knowledgeably led astray is failure.
What is the risk of free energy? Standalone energy devices could easily replace a majority of the world's work. The people who sell energy and oil would be removed from economic fortitude, but what kind of place would they find if they abandoned oil? Saudi Arabia and the Middle East could be massively westernized or northernized or southernized or centralized if they chose to adopt free energy instead of oil. They could build factories building anything they want for about no dollars, ad be flush with things and capacity to do work. The equally divided better lot is greater than the entire present lot on a person to person basis. It would be easy to support very high qualities of living for everyone on earth and billions more with such technology and social structure in place. By 'everyone' I mean all 6.2 billion humans living here.
Wednesday, June 21, 2006
Government and Business
Revelation tapes mean that government and business are almost indistinguishable. John Perkins, Ex-Economic Hit Man For the CIA, government sweetheart deals between American corporations like Bectel and Halliburton during the Iraq war and in other engagements, the heavy crossover between government and corporate seats, and the establishment of tenets in the Iraq engagement saying that only English or American or [participating] companies/countries could participate in reconstruction efforts in Iraq... and also that Iraq is the only country that can be 100% foreign owned written into it's governing papers, these events all mean that $ and state are not seperate.
Church and state should be seperate because you have religious rights of expression to honor God in your own way. $ and state should be seperate because businesses and government infiltrate one another to infiltrate you and gain control over earth's resources, which are God's for all of us.
The government works through corporate entities affiliated with the CIA and other branches to accomplish deeds all over the world, and maintain deniability through a corporate face. Corporations spend money to get governments and legislatures to enact laws that are friendly to the business and the wealthy at the expense of the poor.
How can this be addressed, legally, by the assembled forces of humanity? Through enlightenment, through regaining media and information flow control, through active democracy, and through consumer discrimination and active commerce. Engage your government and corporations on what they are doing. Engage the media on what they are doing, and spread your own news, spread your own corporate information and economic activities. Spread your own government.
They exist for you.
Church and state should be seperate because you have religious rights of expression to honor God in your own way. $ and state should be seperate because businesses and government infiltrate one another to infiltrate you and gain control over earth's resources, which are God's for all of us.
The government works through corporate entities affiliated with the CIA and other branches to accomplish deeds all over the world, and maintain deniability through a corporate face. Corporations spend money to get governments and legislatures to enact laws that are friendly to the business and the wealthy at the expense of the poor.
How can this be addressed, legally, by the assembled forces of humanity? Through enlightenment, through regaining media and information flow control, through active democracy, and through consumer discrimination and active commerce. Engage your government and corporations on what they are doing. Engage the media on what they are doing, and spread your own news, spread your own corporate information and economic activities. Spread your own government.
They exist for you.
Economic Totem Pole
The top 1% of the world's population owned more than the lowest 90% in about 2003. The top 1% of America owns more than the top 90%, and America has 5% of the population and owns about 25% of the world's resources.
0.05% of the world, the economic top 1% of America, owns about 15% of the world's resources.
Doing the math...
1/20 of 1%... 15%... = 20 X 15%. That is 300X more than their share. If you were 1/300 as rich as the wealthiest businessmen, you would be set for life. If everyone were that rich they would be set for life. There is enough stuff on earth for everyone to be set for life, within a normal economic framework.
0.05% of the world, the economic top 1% of America, owns about 15% of the world's resources.
Doing the math...
1/20 of 1%... 15%... = 20 X 15%. That is 300X more than their share. If you were 1/300 as rich as the wealthiest businessmen, you would be set for life. If everyone were that rich they would be set for life. There is enough stuff on earth for everyone to be set for life, within a normal economic framework.
Tuesday, June 20, 2006
The Train
Fiscally, economically, we've gotten very good at what we're doing. We've streamlined processes, we've set up production, we're set in our ways. We're making money, even still. Some people do this socially. It is difficult and costly to change your ways, this is true.
But it is necessary to change in the light of true information. The Titanic even needs to steer. The American economy needs to steer. We're facing some serious icebergs.
-Peak oil
-Environmental destruction
-Economic disparity
and possibly
-Political dischord
Peak oil will arrive shortly. This is a serious problem for reasons listed in posts below. We do not want to hit The Grinding Halt. We want to live with one another in love and faith in God, enjoying this adventure. We should continue and refine this economic and social process, because economics is actually social service, and society is sharing life together with God. We need to change fuels and be ready to change fuels en masse and quickly.
We're damaging the planet we live on through our economic and industrial activities. We need to update our industry system not only so it's more efficient and helps more people. We need to emit substantially less pollution into this world. Changing fuels is one good way to do this. Most air pollution comes from either electricity generation or motor exhaust. We can change both of these sources entirely.
The economic disparity we demonstrate as a culture represents unthankfulness and mismanagement. It is an absence because of an overabundance, which creates two examples of inefficiency. The physical reality of it is much less articulate. This economic bunching can be expended on the two above problems as service to humanity in atonement. Learning is also crucial.
To defend this system and its current misarrangements, we have established a high level of political dischord. This is shame and willingly being led astray. It is purposefully leading others astray, and God's justice is forever perfect. May God have mercy on us all.
==
Also consider confessions of an economic hit man, John Perkins. 'I along with a series of others were economic hit men. We managed to create a truly global empire and cheat 3rd world countries out of trillions of dollars.'
But it is necessary to change in the light of true information. The Titanic even needs to steer. The American economy needs to steer. We're facing some serious icebergs.
-Peak oil
-Environmental destruction
-Economic disparity
and possibly
-Political dischord
Peak oil will arrive shortly. This is a serious problem for reasons listed in posts below. We do not want to hit The Grinding Halt. We want to live with one another in love and faith in God, enjoying this adventure. We should continue and refine this economic and social process, because economics is actually social service, and society is sharing life together with God. We need to change fuels and be ready to change fuels en masse and quickly.
We're damaging the planet we live on through our economic and industrial activities. We need to update our industry system not only so it's more efficient and helps more people. We need to emit substantially less pollution into this world. Changing fuels is one good way to do this. Most air pollution comes from either electricity generation or motor exhaust. We can change both of these sources entirely.
The economic disparity we demonstrate as a culture represents unthankfulness and mismanagement. It is an absence because of an overabundance, which creates two examples of inefficiency. The physical reality of it is much less articulate. This economic bunching can be expended on the two above problems as service to humanity in atonement. Learning is also crucial.
To defend this system and its current misarrangements, we have established a high level of political dischord. This is shame and willingly being led astray. It is purposefully leading others astray, and God's justice is forever perfect. May God have mercy on us all.
==
Also consider confessions of an economic hit man, John Perkins. 'I along with a series of others were economic hit men. We managed to create a truly global empire and cheat 3rd world countries out of trillions of dollars.'
Sunday, June 18, 2006
The Desk
I propose an economic drill to increase readiness for peak oil.
America should have a scheduled test day [or two or three days], when we will simulate peak oil. The state and oil companies would withhold an amount of oil equivalent to estimated demand, or slightly below those demand levels. This would produce an examinable and realistic market effect like peak oil, a kind of economic innoculation against oil shortage. The real shortage is expected to hit markets in 2007.
The public would be educated about oil supply and energy, pollution, industry, and world economic distribution. We would discuss when real peak oil is expected to occur, and what kinds of effects it would have as demonstrated and otherwise, what consumers and industries can do to delayand reduce its effects and to recover from it quickly when it arrives.
During this test fuel prices would likely rise considerably and in a semi-regulated manner, and be returned to pre-test levels after completion. This expense may be post-regulated by the state and proceeds may be returned to families hit hardest, to charities, and to industrial innovation efforts. It would raise public awareness of the problem, which is the primary catalyst of the test, and which would produce the largest effect. From there, the awareness could be focused into consumer and industry innovation. Consumers would become aware of the imminent nature of peak oil and invited to join an international debate and market shift about what to do in response to peak oil.
This will noticably reduce the effects of the real peak oil when it hits and mentally prepare Americans and the world, increasing readiness and response. A televised and podcast address from the president, oil and motor company CEOs and a series of free public debates on the topic, internet forums, and the resulting research, corporate interaction, and magazine coverage would lead to better methods and alternatives, and possibly be the beginning work of refining legislation on the topic.
We can beat oil. This is one way among many that will be required.
America should have a scheduled test day [or two or three days], when we will simulate peak oil. The state and oil companies would withhold an amount of oil equivalent to estimated demand, or slightly below those demand levels. This would produce an examinable and realistic market effect like peak oil, a kind of economic innoculation against oil shortage. The real shortage is expected to hit markets in 2007.
The public would be educated about oil supply and energy, pollution, industry, and world economic distribution. We would discuss when real peak oil is expected to occur, and what kinds of effects it would have as demonstrated and otherwise, what consumers and industries can do to delayand reduce its effects and to recover from it quickly when it arrives.
During this test fuel prices would likely rise considerably and in a semi-regulated manner, and be returned to pre-test levels after completion. This expense may be post-regulated by the state and proceeds may be returned to families hit hardest, to charities, and to industrial innovation efforts. It would raise public awareness of the problem, which is the primary catalyst of the test, and which would produce the largest effect. From there, the awareness could be focused into consumer and industry innovation. Consumers would become aware of the imminent nature of peak oil and invited to join an international debate and market shift about what to do in response to peak oil.
This will noticably reduce the effects of the real peak oil when it hits and mentally prepare Americans and the world, increasing readiness and response. A televised and podcast address from the president, oil and motor company CEOs and a series of free public debates on the topic, internet forums, and the resulting research, corporate interaction, and magazine coverage would lead to better methods and alternatives, and possibly be the beginning work of refining legislation on the topic.
We can beat oil. This is one way among many that will be required.
Friday, June 16, 2006
Alternatives To Retail
Maybe you didn't hear it the first time when it was proposed in the original publication of Better Godliness Through Chemistry, but retail is economically minimal, suffers from high overhead, and alternative methods to generate more economic vitality are superior.
A cheaper and cleaner way to perform retail involves Expos, advanced internet salesforces, and same day delivery. First, the net, coz you're on it.
A majority of normal retail customers would be delighted to shop online in their own homes and bathrobes, and are technologically savvy enough to do it. There are certain drawbacks, though. You cannot 'see' the item before you buy it. Who knows when 'shipping' is going to get it to my place. And customers expect to go get the item and bring it home. These three things can be circumvented to save customers and businesses money.
Every business that is substantial has a website, and most already have net ordering protocols. Webcam for chat is growing and growing, and chatrooms are 90's business talk. Customers can see the product on webcam, even see live demonstrations by internet salesforces on webcam, and chat about it with staff and one another. Knowledgeable salesforces can perform their informative duties through a one or two way webcam one on one with customers as easily as an in person salesman.
The plus side is that we don't need a high real estate altitude showroom, nor do we need a similarly positioned warehouse. We can have people from anywhere in the country or world sell and inform about the item to anyone else, and have the items shipped locally from low-rent local warehouses that day. Instead of paying for a spot on the strip you can pay for a spot in the woods and sit there on a $39,000 multi-acre property plus warehouse and shipping team, while my tech center in California serves the customers online and correspond orders. That's the magic of alternative retail, and it will lower the price of business and increase the dignity of technical and even cam workers, while reducing commutes, saving customers time, and improving regional industrial employment.
Expos are high intensity sales weekends or events, occuring at concert halls, warehouses, conference centers, or other open spaces on select days. Heavy advertising for the event, factory direct sales, entrepreneurial opportunities, fun *classy* mall-like economic structure, without massive standing overhead or the same old humdrum doldrums. Opportunistic renting space and special event status, plus factory sales and R&D opportunities mean that this too can ring in at much lower cost than the average retail store. If you're only open and paying for it 2 days a week, but doing 7 days worth of business, everyone wins because you can offer deals and don't get weighed down. There's even room for the little guy.
The logic is this: the consumer wants ticket items regardless of when the store is open. You close at night, do you miss sales then? Few, probably not many. Because they come in the next day when you open again, unless someone else is open at 1am or the desire is passing. If the customer knows that they can get a deal at this expo, they will likely wait for it instead of going to a common retail outlet to pay more. An exciting expo is like a circus show and holds many opportunities. It's an event.
The option of same day delivery is important to customers. They want to be able to have the item almost as quickly as they could if they went out and bought it. That option must be available for a small premium that may bring the item up close to it's normal shelf price. If they are willing to wait a day or two to get it they should be receive a solid deal, maybe 10-15% more under retail price for most goods, even ticket items. Savings on staff and real estate should make up the difference.
Being able to do this in combination with parcel delivery services running on improved fuels in the wake of peak oil should lower the cost of shipping. Maglev trainsets can further reduce shipping costs and times around the country and world. The space elevator for commercial goods may do the same thing when it goes up.
These measures will spice up the otherwise unpopular world of retail and product distribution.
Note also that cross country freight operations cost about $3 a gallon of diesel to ship, and many loaded trucks receive only a few mpg. This can mean that a 100,000 mile year for a single truck could cost up to $30,000 in fuel in an unsteady market. By switching to B100 biodiesel or even B20, each truck can save thousands of dollars anually, tacking the bills right onto trucker salaries and reduced prices. That is how you beat inflation, my friends.
A cheaper and cleaner way to perform retail involves Expos, advanced internet salesforces, and same day delivery. First, the net, coz you're on it.
A majority of normal retail customers would be delighted to shop online in their own homes and bathrobes, and are technologically savvy enough to do it. There are certain drawbacks, though. You cannot 'see' the item before you buy it. Who knows when 'shipping' is going to get it to my place. And customers expect to go get the item and bring it home. These three things can be circumvented to save customers and businesses money.
Every business that is substantial has a website, and most already have net ordering protocols. Webcam for chat is growing and growing, and chatrooms are 90's business talk. Customers can see the product on webcam, even see live demonstrations by internet salesforces on webcam, and chat about it with staff and one another. Knowledgeable salesforces can perform their informative duties through a one or two way webcam one on one with customers as easily as an in person salesman.
The plus side is that we don't need a high real estate altitude showroom, nor do we need a similarly positioned warehouse. We can have people from anywhere in the country or world sell and inform about the item to anyone else, and have the items shipped locally from low-rent local warehouses that day. Instead of paying for a spot on the strip you can pay for a spot in the woods and sit there on a $39,000 multi-acre property plus warehouse and shipping team, while my tech center in California serves the customers online and correspond orders. That's the magic of alternative retail, and it will lower the price of business and increase the dignity of technical and even cam workers, while reducing commutes, saving customers time, and improving regional industrial employment.
Expos are high intensity sales weekends or events, occuring at concert halls, warehouses, conference centers, or other open spaces on select days. Heavy advertising for the event, factory direct sales, entrepreneurial opportunities, fun *classy* mall-like economic structure, without massive standing overhead or the same old humdrum doldrums. Opportunistic renting space and special event status, plus factory sales and R&D opportunities mean that this too can ring in at much lower cost than the average retail store. If you're only open and paying for it 2 days a week, but doing 7 days worth of business, everyone wins because you can offer deals and don't get weighed down. There's even room for the little guy.
The logic is this: the consumer wants ticket items regardless of when the store is open. You close at night, do you miss sales then? Few, probably not many. Because they come in the next day when you open again, unless someone else is open at 1am or the desire is passing. If the customer knows that they can get a deal at this expo, they will likely wait for it instead of going to a common retail outlet to pay more. An exciting expo is like a circus show and holds many opportunities. It's an event.
The option of same day delivery is important to customers. They want to be able to have the item almost as quickly as they could if they went out and bought it. That option must be available for a small premium that may bring the item up close to it's normal shelf price. If they are willing to wait a day or two to get it they should be receive a solid deal, maybe 10-15% more under retail price for most goods, even ticket items. Savings on staff and real estate should make up the difference.
Being able to do this in combination with parcel delivery services running on improved fuels in the wake of peak oil should lower the cost of shipping. Maglev trainsets can further reduce shipping costs and times around the country and world. The space elevator for commercial goods may do the same thing when it goes up.
These measures will spice up the otherwise unpopular world of retail and product distribution.
Note also that cross country freight operations cost about $3 a gallon of diesel to ship, and many loaded trucks receive only a few mpg. This can mean that a 100,000 mile year for a single truck could cost up to $30,000 in fuel in an unsteady market. By switching to B100 biodiesel or even B20, each truck can save thousands of dollars anually, tacking the bills right onto trucker salaries and reduced prices. That is how you beat inflation, my friends.
Tuesday, June 13, 2006
Nikkei Bounces
"Wednesday, June 14, 2006 1:30 p.m. (JST)
TOKYO (Kyodo)--Japan's key Nikkei stock index rose Wednesday morning as bargain-hunting set in following the previous day's sharp sell-off that sent the benchmark index plummeting by its biggest single-day point loss in more than four years. "
-http://www.nni.nikkei.co.jp/
TOKYO (Kyodo)--Japan's key Nikkei stock index rose Wednesday morning as bargain-hunting set in following the previous day's sharp sell-off that sent the benchmark index plummeting by its biggest single-day point loss in more than four years. "
-http://www.nni.nikkei.co.jp/
Japanese Stock Jubilance
Nikkei drops 4.14%
This drop is not because of industrial lack. It is caused by the advice given to the Japanese government to put their pensions in hedge funds. They likely shifted out of the conservative stock market and into hedge funds, accounting for a large leadership in stock market reduction. This is not a trend, and I expect markets to rebound shortly.
This drop is not because of industrial lack. It is caused by the advice given to the Japanese government to put their pensions in hedge funds. They likely shifted out of the conservative stock market and into hedge funds, accounting for a large leadership in stock market reduction. This is not a trend, and I expect markets to rebound shortly.
Sunday, June 11, 2006
Investing in Oil
It may be either wise or unwise to invest in oil, depending on which side of the tennis court you are playing on.
Oil will top off very soon, and the effect will hit markets within seasons. Once it breaks, it won't be gone for years. This could be two kinds of good opportunity, or it could be disastrous. Some facts offer relief. We will switch our primary automotive and engine fuel from oil to another or likely several fuels within the next *3 years*. Very few new cars in business year 2010 will run purely on gasoline, or if they do they will need to get MPG in the 50-60 range and be rather inexpensive. Profit will no longer flow to petroleum engines, that much can be said.
However, for a year or two, it definately will. We are so drenched in oil as an economy that we can scarcely do without it, and will be forced to pay out the nose for whatever the market demands of it, especially after supply cannot meet demand. We could see oil prices hitting $140 within a year assuming unobstructed markets. That is a 100% appreciation. That is good money.
But what does the money mean? Investing in oil is sacrificing a considerable amount of investment in other areas, and we seem to need every bit of investment potential going into oil alternatives. Oil is a trillion dollar business, and changing our world's infrastructure away from it will take plenty of money and labor. What will it matter if getting that money causes the American and world economy to tank?
You could invest in oil and make a killing over an 18 month period, only to see those profits eaten by inflation due to an economy forcibly shifted into low gear. They will eat you too. Where will you put the money once you've made those billions on the stock market or in the oil industry? What sector will not be harmed by peak oil where you could hedge your funds? It is pointless to go all-in to oil and let the rest of the world work itself out. You can't eat oil.
Long term investors will either avoid oil investment or invest lightly in oil among all sectors and focus investments into alternative energy, major R&D firms, fuel cell research, battery research and metal hydrides, and possibly into gold. Some of the more progressive automakers may be fiscally responsible choices.
Unfortunately, energy conservation will not reduce our oil consumption significantly. It only secondarily decreases the amount of oil used in power generation, agriculture, and industry a small amount. Probably less than 500KBD. It might be wiser [at any time] to buy and eat organic foods and have a garden, and to reduce unnecessary travel and convert your vehicle to make use of nonpetrol fuels. Home oil heat uses a substantial amount of oil, and switching your home from oil to other forms of heating, or augmenting heat sources with a woodstove or better insulation can reduce oil consumption in meaningful ways.
Higher oil prices mean all products cost more, since very little is made locally in any given part of the country or modern world. We can foster these local industries [with local jobs] now by doing business with them and investing in them, and doing less business with major multinational companies reliant on shipping [especially international shipping] and distant fiscal and command centers. These items will become 'luxury'. Make sure they're worth it if you use them.
I would also invest or do business with companies in nations and world regions that are preparing most readily for this energy shift and expect to be hit lightest by peak oil. Nations that have publicly addressed the concept of peak oil, particularly with their media and citizenship, are likely to be more economically prepared for peak oil and its aftermath.
Oil will top off very soon, and the effect will hit markets within seasons. Once it breaks, it won't be gone for years. This could be two kinds of good opportunity, or it could be disastrous. Some facts offer relief. We will switch our primary automotive and engine fuel from oil to another or likely several fuels within the next *3 years*. Very few new cars in business year 2010 will run purely on gasoline, or if they do they will need to get MPG in the 50-60 range and be rather inexpensive. Profit will no longer flow to petroleum engines, that much can be said.
However, for a year or two, it definately will. We are so drenched in oil as an economy that we can scarcely do without it, and will be forced to pay out the nose for whatever the market demands of it, especially after supply cannot meet demand. We could see oil prices hitting $140 within a year assuming unobstructed markets. That is a 100% appreciation. That is good money.
But what does the money mean? Investing in oil is sacrificing a considerable amount of investment in other areas, and we seem to need every bit of investment potential going into oil alternatives. Oil is a trillion dollar business, and changing our world's infrastructure away from it will take plenty of money and labor. What will it matter if getting that money causes the American and world economy to tank?
You could invest in oil and make a killing over an 18 month period, only to see those profits eaten by inflation due to an economy forcibly shifted into low gear. They will eat you too. Where will you put the money once you've made those billions on the stock market or in the oil industry? What sector will not be harmed by peak oil where you could hedge your funds? It is pointless to go all-in to oil and let the rest of the world work itself out. You can't eat oil.
Long term investors will either avoid oil investment or invest lightly in oil among all sectors and focus investments into alternative energy, major R&D firms, fuel cell research, battery research and metal hydrides, and possibly into gold. Some of the more progressive automakers may be fiscally responsible choices.
Unfortunately, energy conservation will not reduce our oil consumption significantly. It only secondarily decreases the amount of oil used in power generation, agriculture, and industry a small amount. Probably less than 500KBD. It might be wiser [at any time] to buy and eat organic foods and have a garden, and to reduce unnecessary travel and convert your vehicle to make use of nonpetrol fuels. Home oil heat uses a substantial amount of oil, and switching your home from oil to other forms of heating, or augmenting heat sources with a woodstove or better insulation can reduce oil consumption in meaningful ways.
Higher oil prices mean all products cost more, since very little is made locally in any given part of the country or modern world. We can foster these local industries [with local jobs] now by doing business with them and investing in them, and doing less business with major multinational companies reliant on shipping [especially international shipping] and distant fiscal and command centers. These items will become 'luxury'. Make sure they're worth it if you use them.
I would also invest or do business with companies in nations and world regions that are preparing most readily for this energy shift and expect to be hit lightest by peak oil. Nations that have publicly addressed the concept of peak oil, particularly with their media and citizenship, are likely to be more economically prepared for peak oil and its aftermath.
Tuesday, June 06, 2006
Economic Indicators For 3Q06
All Business
To be frank, the American dollar traded at about 1:1.45 [CAN] in ~2002. now it trades at ~1:1.07. Canada is the control group of this experiment. This is fairly accurate and would be difficult to fake. The USD has deflated in value about 35% since ~2002.
American worker wages have risen an average of 0.3% per year for 25 years. This was stated on NPR one fine day. While cost of living has been rising apace of inflation.
the seperation between rich and poor is greater than at any time since the 1920's. the next greatest seperation will be the 1890's before the anti-trust laws kicked in. public debt is as high as the 1920's.
unemployment is not ~5%. it is closer to 9-10%, or more, because unemployment does not count those who have given up job searching because the market has no free jobs. it also does not count underemployment, where 40 hours a week are not available, or 40 hours a week do not produce 1 quality of living. to get a meaningful job it costs about $100,000 in college monies. most Americans don't have this money.
inflation is also closer to ~8%. when comparing prices between now and last year 'economists' take every advantage, between name brand/cheap brand goods, walmart to premium store style comparison, and factoring in reduction of cost by obsoletion. a flatscreen TV reducing in price by 30% in one year due to new technology replacing it is not deflation, but it wrongfully counts against inflation.
and we're running a ~500 billion deficit? with taxes and social services reducing every year. GOV spent 24% less on healthcare this year, if i am not mistaken. that means ~24% fewer healthcare jobs and services.
Peak oil is the largest and most important economic figure facing the US and world today. oil prices have risen 300% in the past few years and take up a greater portion of cost of living than in the past 2-3 decades. we are set to hit peak oil in about 2007, which will cause oil prices to rise 300% on top of this rise.
what is the FED's plan for peak oil? let it ride? they haven't even addressed the issue publicly yet and it is on our doorstep.
America owns more than one vehicle per person. We have more than 300 million vehicles, over 95% of them running on petroleum. Fortunately about 15 million of them are E85, which could quickly be tuned to run on neat ethanol, and another 15 million of them are diesel, which could be quickly modified to run on neat biodiesel. This could potentially reduce our oil demands by perhaps one MBD. And other voluntary conservation measures could likely remove another MBD.
That 2MBD represents a normal growth figure of approximately 6-8 months on the oil scale, and it will shatter confidence and futures. The remainder will be cost-prohibitive reduction and a small amount of supply-prohibitive reduction, both of which are business-toxins. Considering the relatively inelastic properties of oil for transportation and the lack of non-oil alternatives, except for coal and electric rail, which cannot support the backbones of commerce, peak oil will damage American economic performance as badly as the Great Depression, by seperating and placing fiscal resistance between necessary economic conductors.
Will this damage America's ability to lead world economics? Yes. The Greenback may no longer be the prime mover in world currency. Arab nations and net oil producers will set the tone because they will not hinder their own economics with oil prices. They will pass the price on to us, the net consumers. Net consumers will be at a fiscal disadvantage of moderate to high degree depending on importers' willingness to diversify and educational and some infrastructural factors. What form of currency will lead economics? It could be the Yuan, the Dollar, the Euro, or possibly the Saudi. Depending on the deals between Saudi Arabia and America. Depending on Chinese intuition. Depending on European preparedness. Boring.
What can the nation do, and you, by proxy, to be ready for peak oil and advance in a tight job market with high inflation, international currency devaluation, and sagging public service?
Reduce your costs and shift around oil. Examine Homestead Magazine for tips on how to live more cheaply. Become energy efficient. Replace old bulbs with efficient ones and turn them off when you're not using them. Turn off the TV and computer when you're not around them. Convert your oil-burning car to ethanol or biodiesel. If building or buying a new home, make it earth-sheltered, or at least EnergyStar efficient. Invest in alternative energy projects, both in the stock market and in your profile of goods.
"Do not make unneccesary trips."
If you are a worker, perform research a service or science field you can use without oil. If you have mechanical ability, study engines and alternative fuels, know how to service and convert your vehicle. Get top mileage. Research how to make biodiesel fuel or where to buy it. Learn medical information and stay current with scholarly journals. Learn how to sew. Try making at least one article of clothing for yourself, or a friend. Compost. Recycle. Freecycle. Plant a garden, and don't use pesticides or excessive fertilizer. Build a greenhouse if you want controlled environments. Get to know your neighbors, friends, and families. They are your closest allies.
If you are a small business, begin to advertise and supply services linked to energy efficiency, self training and skill gathering. Offer online services preferential to a commute. *Reduce the amount of advertising in your store.* Research the companies you do business with. Buy local products. If you are a franchise, disenfranchise. You can do it better and have more money to use.
If you are a large business, consider modifying your corporate offices and businesses to have a top greenhouse or wind farm. Advertise less and use less packaging, but try shifting the layout of the service or product tangent to the market. Use fewer artificial colors and flavors and fewer preservatives. Use less sugars, salts, and fats in the diet. Trade this money for higher quality products or paying your workers more. These will both produce better goods and services. If you run autofleets, convert them to run using biodiesel or ethanol fuels. Petition the government and automakers to support this shift internationally. ...buy back some of your stock. Avoid long term bonds and loans. Do not test products on animals, ever.
Write, talk, and email to your government. The links are provided on the side of this page. Now you have no excuse. You can email your senator about anything in 5 minutes.
If you are a government, legalize industrial hemp and use it to make cheaper paper than the current woodpulp setup. This is less resource and time intensive and you'll make billions in 2 years. Enforce anti-trust laws. Enforce EPA regulations. Sign the Kyoto treaty and meet it by shifting to biodiesel/ethanol fuel and changing power plant operation from coal and nuclear to enzyme fuel cells and concentrating solar power. The southern half of the US shouldn't have any nuclear or coal plants at all. Ever. For any reason. De-privatize massive public service projects such as water and power. That is DPW material. Not for profit. Tax if necessary to conserve. Enact conservation budgets, replace incandescent stoplights with LED stoplights. Investigate piezoelectric uses.
Translate foreign aid into well-digging programs to provide the world with clean drinking water. We should also provide the means for ~2-3 billion solar cookers to be used in the 3rd world to cook food and sanitize water more easily.
Most of these measures will be taken in the next 20 years by necessity or forethought. Decide.
To be frank, the American dollar traded at about 1:1.45 [CAN] in ~2002. now it trades at ~1:1.07. Canada is the control group of this experiment. This is fairly accurate and would be difficult to fake. The USD has deflated in value about 35% since ~2002.
American worker wages have risen an average of 0.3% per year for 25 years. This was stated on NPR one fine day. While cost of living has been rising apace of inflation.
the seperation between rich and poor is greater than at any time since the 1920's. the next greatest seperation will be the 1890's before the anti-trust laws kicked in. public debt is as high as the 1920's.
unemployment is not ~5%. it is closer to 9-10%, or more, because unemployment does not count those who have given up job searching because the market has no free jobs. it also does not count underemployment, where 40 hours a week are not available, or 40 hours a week do not produce 1 quality of living. to get a meaningful job it costs about $100,000 in college monies. most Americans don't have this money.
inflation is also closer to ~8%. when comparing prices between now and last year 'economists' take every advantage, between name brand/cheap brand goods, walmart to premium store style comparison, and factoring in reduction of cost by obsoletion. a flatscreen TV reducing in price by 30% in one year due to new technology replacing it is not deflation, but it wrongfully counts against inflation.
and we're running a ~500 billion deficit? with taxes and social services reducing every year. GOV spent 24% less on healthcare this year, if i am not mistaken. that means ~24% fewer healthcare jobs and services.
Peak oil is the largest and most important economic figure facing the US and world today. oil prices have risen 300% in the past few years and take up a greater portion of cost of living than in the past 2-3 decades. we are set to hit peak oil in about 2007, which will cause oil prices to rise 300% on top of this rise.
what is the FED's plan for peak oil? let it ride? they haven't even addressed the issue publicly yet and it is on our doorstep.
America owns more than one vehicle per person. We have more than 300 million vehicles, over 95% of them running on petroleum. Fortunately about 15 million of them are E85, which could quickly be tuned to run on neat ethanol, and another 15 million of them are diesel, which could be quickly modified to run on neat biodiesel. This could potentially reduce our oil demands by perhaps one MBD. And other voluntary conservation measures could likely remove another MBD.
That 2MBD represents a normal growth figure of approximately 6-8 months on the oil scale, and it will shatter confidence and futures. The remainder will be cost-prohibitive reduction and a small amount of supply-prohibitive reduction, both of which are business-toxins. Considering the relatively inelastic properties of oil for transportation and the lack of non-oil alternatives, except for coal and electric rail, which cannot support the backbones of commerce, peak oil will damage American economic performance as badly as the Great Depression, by seperating and placing fiscal resistance between necessary economic conductors.
Will this damage America's ability to lead world economics? Yes. The Greenback may no longer be the prime mover in world currency. Arab nations and net oil producers will set the tone because they will not hinder their own economics with oil prices. They will pass the price on to us, the net consumers. Net consumers will be at a fiscal disadvantage of moderate to high degree depending on importers' willingness to diversify and educational and some infrastructural factors. What form of currency will lead economics? It could be the Yuan, the Dollar, the Euro, or possibly the Saudi. Depending on the deals between Saudi Arabia and America. Depending on Chinese intuition. Depending on European preparedness. Boring.
What can the nation do, and you, by proxy, to be ready for peak oil and advance in a tight job market with high inflation, international currency devaluation, and sagging public service?
Reduce your costs and shift around oil. Examine Homestead Magazine for tips on how to live more cheaply. Become energy efficient. Replace old bulbs with efficient ones and turn them off when you're not using them. Turn off the TV and computer when you're not around them. Convert your oil-burning car to ethanol or biodiesel. If building or buying a new home, make it earth-sheltered, or at least EnergyStar efficient. Invest in alternative energy projects, both in the stock market and in your profile of goods.
"Do not make unneccesary trips."
If you are a worker, perform research a service or science field you can use without oil. If you have mechanical ability, study engines and alternative fuels, know how to service and convert your vehicle. Get top mileage. Research how to make biodiesel fuel or where to buy it. Learn medical information and stay current with scholarly journals. Learn how to sew. Try making at least one article of clothing for yourself, or a friend. Compost. Recycle. Freecycle. Plant a garden, and don't use pesticides or excessive fertilizer. Build a greenhouse if you want controlled environments. Get to know your neighbors, friends, and families. They are your closest allies.
If you are a small business, begin to advertise and supply services linked to energy efficiency, self training and skill gathering. Offer online services preferential to a commute. *Reduce the amount of advertising in your store.* Research the companies you do business with. Buy local products. If you are a franchise, disenfranchise. You can do it better and have more money to use.
If you are a large business, consider modifying your corporate offices and businesses to have a top greenhouse or wind farm. Advertise less and use less packaging, but try shifting the layout of the service or product tangent to the market. Use fewer artificial colors and flavors and fewer preservatives. Use less sugars, salts, and fats in the diet. Trade this money for higher quality products or paying your workers more. These will both produce better goods and services. If you run autofleets, convert them to run using biodiesel or ethanol fuels. Petition the government and automakers to support this shift internationally. ...buy back some of your stock. Avoid long term bonds and loans. Do not test products on animals, ever.
Write, talk, and email to your government. The links are provided on the side of this page. Now you have no excuse. You can email your senator about anything in 5 minutes.
If you are a government, legalize industrial hemp and use it to make cheaper paper than the current woodpulp setup. This is less resource and time intensive and you'll make billions in 2 years. Enforce anti-trust laws. Enforce EPA regulations. Sign the Kyoto treaty and meet it by shifting to biodiesel/ethanol fuel and changing power plant operation from coal and nuclear to enzyme fuel cells and concentrating solar power. The southern half of the US shouldn't have any nuclear or coal plants at all. Ever. For any reason. De-privatize massive public service projects such as water and power. That is DPW material. Not for profit. Tax if necessary to conserve. Enact conservation budgets, replace incandescent stoplights with LED stoplights. Investigate piezoelectric uses.
Translate foreign aid into well-digging programs to provide the world with clean drinking water. We should also provide the means for ~2-3 billion solar cookers to be used in the 3rd world to cook food and sanitize water more easily.
Most of these measures will be taken in the next 20 years by necessity or forethought. Decide.
Monday, June 05, 2006
Midflow Adjustment
As an economist, it is apparent that several changes in the way we use funds and resources should be made to improve the lives of humanity.
We must shift our industrial cycle towards cleaner fuels and processes to help people and animals and an environment affected by gross waste. This can be accomplished particularly in the motor and energy production sectors. Laws passed for economic participants and example technologies provided and fostered/sponsored by leadership agencies will assist in reducing and removing world pollution to help humanity and keep our nest clean.
A substantial portion of our 'extra' tax funds can be devoted to providing a simple supply of fresh water to people everywhere on earth. At the same time, reflective solar cooking can be sponsored in large parts of the world to reduce labor, resource, and pollution intense woodburning waste. By commissioning wells and solar cooking production we can dramatically improve the lives of a large portion of humanity, enabling them to approach getting on their feet to participate in local and global communities.
For every dollar spent on this approach and approaches like it, an conservatively estimated 1.5 dollars of military spending could be avoided and 6-16 dollars could be added to the international money pot. British studies put early-life spending to life-cycle savings at 1:8.
Enough fairly distributed and managed resources exist for the planet to support substantially more life than we are currently supporting. We should increase our responsibility and generosity and increase the life on this planet.
We must shift our industrial cycle towards cleaner fuels and processes to help people and animals and an environment affected by gross waste. This can be accomplished particularly in the motor and energy production sectors. Laws passed for economic participants and example technologies provided and fostered/sponsored by leadership agencies will assist in reducing and removing world pollution to help humanity and keep our nest clean.
A substantial portion of our 'extra' tax funds can be devoted to providing a simple supply of fresh water to people everywhere on earth. At the same time, reflective solar cooking can be sponsored in large parts of the world to reduce labor, resource, and pollution intense woodburning waste. By commissioning wells and solar cooking production we can dramatically improve the lives of a large portion of humanity, enabling them to approach getting on their feet to participate in local and global communities.
For every dollar spent on this approach and approaches like it, an conservatively estimated 1.5 dollars of military spending could be avoided and 6-16 dollars could be added to the international money pot. British studies put early-life spending to life-cycle savings at 1:8.
Enough fairly distributed and managed resources exist for the planet to support substantially more life than we are currently supporting. We should increase our responsibility and generosity and increase the life on this planet.
Money Is A Receipt For Labor
How can we arrange industry and economics to help more people live fairer and better lives? We can begin by reviewing our industrial cycle and the systems of business and resource distribution, the needs they address, and our social and educational systems.
We can also be conscious of our resources and the ways we use them, be thankful for the gifts we have received, and remember charity and know the meaning and responsibilities of stewardship.
We can also be conscious of our resources and the ways we use them, be thankful for the gifts we have received, and remember charity and know the meaning and responsibilities of stewardship.
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